Clinuvel

investek

Well-known member
Taken from The Australian. So, watch out for an explosion in the CUV SP seeing as the downgrade to 'hold' from Jefferies was put forward at the catalyst for the sell off.

www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/asx-200-to-dip-at-the-open-iron-ore-price-climbs/live-coverage/4b515556306cde95c26504330bdf198d

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Are Jeffries’ analysts ‘investors’ or ‘traders’?

First a downgrade a few days shy of the AGM and into increasing short positions.

Now an upgrade a week prior to a 4C release? (Where many expect stellar cash flows)

If I were an analyst I would probably wait until ‘after’ these key events to update my models with key quantitative and qualitative info.

Ah but I am a mere insect 🐜
 

polyphemus

7th Longest Active Member
@Frogster That's good news - very good news - we are on target for an AIS Read Out.
interesting couple of weeks coming up.
We should receive cash flow numbers for the Dec quarter next week - if they show growth in earnings of ~13% then we have the price increase factors, larger and the penetration into addressable markets continues
Half yearly numbers mid February and a AIS results Read Out late Feb.
Which all leads to announcement of a new AIS trial in March (Assumption data supports a new trial which we think at minimum 2 of 3 showed enough to get the term 'significant improvement.)
The other things that this indicates - which are just as important:
a) enrollment completed 17th Jan - Results 6 weeks later = Short Trial periods, small costs, any new ph2 would complete within 3 months.
b) Short trial periods means less cost - I cant see expenses blowing out for the 1st half
c) Any phase 3 completion is only dependent on recruitment numbers which appears to be a consistent flow in 1 center in Australia, consider Germany's 1700 per week as an example of where a larger cohort could be performed
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From the 1st three.
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macgyver

Well-known member
c) Any phase 3 completion is only dependent on recruitment numbers which appears to be a consistent flow in 1 center in Australia, consider Germany's 1700 per week as an example of where a larger cohort could be performed
PW will have to open the purse on this one. As you would have seen in at least one report I posted here regarding strokes in Australia the number/frequency of strokes is enormous. But if Clinuvel restricts trial activities to 1/2 sites that's going to cause problems because even though Clinuvel espouses they could potentially treat 80% of strokes, they had a hard enough time treating 6 patients. At any rate such is the frequency of strokes in Melbourne and actually any major city worldwide that they have the opportunity to trial city wide and capture the required number of patients if they choose to in a reasonable timeframe (Covid considerations aside). Seriously hoping they conduct the Phase 3 trial across at least several centres otherwise it will be a long haul.

They are reaching a tipping point between deciding whether to capitalise on the market exclusivity they have left and spending big or being frugal and losing out on millions of dollars afforded by market exclusivity protection. If they are going to empty the coffers, surely this is the indication to do it (pending encouraging results of course).
 
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